The biggest distinction between investing and gambling lies in the significance attributed to probability, often referred to as ‘luck,’ and its counterpart, ‘evidence.’
Investing in the unknown required a precise criterion for predicting the future; in which, the proportion of ‘evidence’ must surpass a certain threshold.
On the other hand, betting on something based solely on vague luck couldn’t be deemed an investment; it’d merely be a gamble at best. Acting on weak grounds also didn’t qualify as an investment—it was a gamble, plain and simple.
However, many individuals were unwilling to acknowledge that reality. They tend to exhibit overconfidence in weak evidence and place undue hopes in it.
Naturally, they often justified their actions in the guise of investment, not recognizing it as mere gambling.
Investments initiated under such circumstances would result in an ‘uncertain outcome,’ which had the probability to incur significant losses.
***
In the wake of the Commercial War, the Merchant Alliance of the Holy Empire faced a severe setback.
At the moment, those who were once part of the Merchant Alliance or supported them were having a meeting.
Most of the participants in the meeting were deeply dissatisfied with the current situation.
“Bertina… that wretched woman did it again, didn’t she?”
“Succeeding in Eastern trade once more…she’s truly a terrifying adversary. Her abilities are undeniably admirable.”
“Now isn’t the time for admiration. We must devise a countermeasure, and quickly!”
“You’re absolutely right. If this continues, the entire commercial sphere of the Empire will slip entirely into the hands of the Uranus Merchant Company. We can’t afford to idly stand by!”
Following their defeat in the commercial war, they were barely holding on. However, those gathered here hadn’t given up entirely.
Fortunately, after the war, Bertina and the Uranus Merchant Company, didn’t display much aggression apart from their Eastern trade endeavors. During this respite, the Alliance, though gasping for breath, steadily gathered strength, preparing for a counterattack.
“Now that Bertina is caught off guard, this might be our final opportunity.”
“If Uranus Merchant Company gains control of Eastern trade and its immense profits, there’ll be no hope left for us.”
With hopes of a dramatic reversal, the members of the Merchant Alliance, once spread throughout continental commerce beyond the Empire, channeled their remaining strength into crafting a decisive yet flawless strike.
The outcome unfolded unexpectedly, posing an unforeseen crisis for the Uranus Merchant Company and Bertina.
***
“What… what does this mean? None of the merchants here in Benessa have come to buy spices?”
“That’s correct. A few days ago, we were flooded with inquiries about prices, but now there’s complete silence.”
“This… this can’t be real…”
Bertina’s expression tightened at the unforeseen situation, prompting Bahamut to issue immediate orders in her stead.
“Ophelia, go and investigate the situation right away. Not just you, but all members of the Beden Merchant Company present here. Find out what’s going on!”
“Yes, My Lord.”
“Bertina, this is no time to be passive.”
“Oh… y-yes. Tilda, please accompany me.”
“Of course, Lady Bertina.”
The two hurried off to assess the situation.
As they departed, Bertina stumbled, feeling momentarily dizzy.
“Milady, are you alright?”
“I-I’m fine… I just need to grasp the situation first…”
Despite having someone to rely on in this absurd situation, Bertina couldn’t shake off the worry.
Why was no one purchasing the spice, an essential commodity?
Something was gravely amiss!
‘There must be someone behind this… someone who orchestrated it… and I have a suspicion about who that might be…’
Bertina collected her thoughts, organizing her mind amidst the chaos.
Observing her, Bahamut couldn’t help but feel deeply concerned, his lips pressed together in worry.
‘This is a disaster… spices constitute 60% of our traded goods. If they don’t sell, both Uranus Merchant Company and us will suffer immense losses.’
Externally, the stake was believed to be 5%, but in reality, the Beden Merchant Company held a significant 37% stake in this trade. As the stakes increased, so did the responsibility, and Bahamut found himself in a position where he had to resolve the current predicament.
‘This is causing me a headache…this wasn’t part of the original story. There’s no clear solution since this situation arose due to a deviation from the established plot.’
Bahamut struggled under the pressure, trying to devise an appropriate strategy without the certainty of the future.
With an uncertain future ahead, he clung to the belief that his unique experiences set him apart, pushing himself to find a solution while anxiously awaiting Ophelia’s return with crucial information.
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Honestly he could take his share and use his own channels to sell it separately. Even if the merchants can place a temporary blockade against the sale of the goods, that can’t last for long. And Bertina can use Mc’s sales channels to start selling it off in other countries. Then when the nobles get fed up with waiting, they’ll be willing to pay greatly inflated prices for those products they could have gotten for much cheaper if they had bought when it arrived in Port